Zhong Han Jian gong bo
"Is it a New Year’s Eve file now?" Not long ago, Hu Youqi, a citizen, found on the ticketing platform that the platform and the cinema had already marked the Lunar New Year file early, and many recently released films also used it as a label for publicity.
Data from Cat’s Eye Professional Edition shows that this year’s Lunar New Year file runs from November 24th to December 31st. As of 16: 00 on December 18th, 81 films (including reruns) have been locked in this schedule, and the national box office this year has exceeded 52.906 billion yuan. With the further promotion of the Lunar New Year file, people in the industry generally believe that this year’s movie box office will hit 55 billion yuan, which is the same as 2017.
Many viewers found that, unlike the impression that the New Year’s Eve files are mainly comedic family movies, this year’s New Year’s Eve files are not only rich in types, but also have a good reputation. However, compared with previous Chinese New Year’s Eve movies, which have produced many annual box office champions and box office masterpieces that broke 1 billion yuan, Across the Furious Sea, which topped this year’s Chinese New Year’s Eve movie, currently has a box office of only 546 million yuan, lacking a "head work" matrix with a double harvest of box office reputation to drive the film market to by going up one flight of stairs.
Has the New Year’s Eve changed?
There is no standard answer as to when the Lunar New Year file will start. Usually, a movie is a hit around December, even if the Lunar New Year file is opened.
On November 30th, the film "Hot Search" starring Zhou Dongyu, Song Yang and Justin was released, saying that it was "the first to open the curtain of the year-end Lunar New Year"; On December 1st, NI YAN and Seven starred in the film Goodbye, Li Kele, which is also called "the first shot of Chinese New Year". Hu Youqi has some doubts: "Isn’t the New Year’s Day to the Spring Festival?"
In fact, with the development of the film market in China, the time of the New Year’s Eve is quietly changing.
When will the Lunar New Year file become a schedule? The reporter interviewed a number of people in the industry, and almost everyone agreed that this concept entered the film industry in China, which originated from the film Party A and Party B, which was released at the end of 1997 and was dubbed as the "New Year’s Film", which made a box office story at that time. Since then, more and more films have chosen to be released during this period, among which the head films are often star-studded and commercial.
Previously, the industry once divided New Year’s Eve files into broad and narrow sense. The broad New Year’s Eve files include two major festivals, New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, which last for about one and a half months. There is no standard answer as to when the Lunar New Year file will start. "Usually, a movie is popular around December, even if the Lunar New Year file is opened".
Wang Ce, a member of the Shanghai Film Criticism Society and a senior screenwriter, said that the Lunar New Year file continued the idea that many lively comedies in China and Hong Kong were shown together during New Year’s Day and Spring Festival. "But at that time, the film supply was small, and the cycle of a film was as long as one to two months. With the increase in film supply, it has now been subdivided into multiple schedules. "
On the movie data platforms such as Cat’s Eye and Lighthouse, the New Year’s Eve file is different from the New Year’s Eve file, New Year’s Day file and Spring Festival file. The New Year’s Eve file refers to more than one month from late November to December 31, while the New Year’s Eve file only refers to a day on December 31. There are still many cases of "stalls" in one day, such as Tanabata stalls and 520 stalls, which have emerged in recent years. According to insiders, the film market is now well supplied and the film screening cycle is shortened. Often, the first week or even the first day of the box office determines the follow-up trend of a film box office. In this case, it is not unexpected to subdivide the schedule. The film will arrange the release time according to the theme, investment and market expectation. Wang Ce said that the Spring Festival is a big schedule. Usually, films with larger investment and higher expectations will be released, and films with less competitiveness will be released on New Year’s Day.
A few days ago, the reporter saw in Daguangming Cinema that the December News posted at the gate of the cinema was a collection of 13 films such as Hot Search and Wonka from Aquaman 2, and posters of recently released films such as Three Battalions, Crossing the Sea and Breaking Point were placed in the hall, but the words "New Year’s Eve File" did not appear. The staff of Daguangming Cinema introduced that in the past, the concept of New Year’s Eve was relatively broad, basically starting from the end of November and early December until the Spring Festival, but now it is gradually subdivided into New Year’s Day and Spring Festival. "We usually say New Year’s Eve, which generally means that when the New Year is approaching, at least after the end of December, it will start with Party A and Party B at the earliest, and then a series of films such as Let Bullets Fly, It’s too embarrassing for people to travel again have good box office output in this period. After the breakdown of the schedule in recent years, the atmosphere of the Lunar New Year file is not as strong as before, and the explosion point is more concentrated in the Spring Festival file. "
"The concept of the schedule is more of a B-end concept. For the audience, the centralized release of the demand for watching movies is often accompanied by legal holidays, and the main box office output of the Lunar New Year file is still on New Year’s Day and other festivals." Zhang Tong, a senior analyst at Cat’s Eye Research Institute, said that in 2010, 2011 and 2012, domestic box office champions, Let Bullets Fly, flowers of war, and The Way of Water, were all released in the New Year’s Eve file. In recent years, the New Year’s Eve file also produced Sheep Without A Shepherd’s Ip Man 4, Shock Wave 2’s manslaughter 2 and Avatar: The Way of Water. "Famous in 2021 and Nobody in 2018 were both released in mid-November, and both of them have achieved good box office results in the traditional off-season of the film market."
Can it hit 55 billion yuan?
This year is the year with the most and most lively New Year movies, but there is still a lack of "head works" with a double harvest at the box office.
The film market in China has recovered strongly this year. Data from Cat’s Eye Professional Edition shows that this year’s Spring Festival file became the second in history with 6.765 billion yuan; After that, the box office of the "May 1 ST" file was second only to the same period in 2019 and 2021; The box office of the summer file exceeded 20.62 billion yuan, breaking the record of the highest box office, the highest number of people and the total number of times in the summer file of China Film History. With the release of many films for the Lunar New Year, the industry is optimistic that the total box office of this year’s films will hit 55 billion yuan.
"In 2023, the overall performance of the China film market was remarkable, and the market quickly recovered its vitality." In Zhang Tong’s view, many masterpieces have emerged during the Spring Festival, summer vacation, National Day and other holiday periods, and new audiences continue to enter the market. "This year’s head films generally have a strong family viewing attribute, and the proportion of older audiences has increased compared with previous years."
This year, there are 81 movies in the Lunar New Year, which is not surprising to some people in the industry. In 2019, there are also 70 movies in the Lunar New Year. The staff of Daguangming Cinema said: "This year’s Lunar New Year’s files have diverse styles and themes to meet the needs of audiences of different ages." Ma Ye, president of Baiying (Beijing) Cinema Management Co., Ltd., believes that this year is the year with the most and most lively New Year movies.
However, at present, Across the Furious Sea, which was released on November 25th, is still the leading movie at the box office, with a cumulative box office of 546 million yuan. Compared with this year’s Spring Festival movie "Man Jiang Hong" and "Wandering Earth 2", and the summer movie "Put all your eggs in one basket", "Disappeared She" and "Goddess the First Part", there is still a lack of "head movies" with strong box office, topics and reputation.
"Up to now, this year’s Lunar New Year file has indeed not seen a large-scale film to incite the market to watch movies." Zhang Tong said that the highlight is the films released at the end of the year. Apart from Twinkle, Twinkle, Twinkle, Bright Stars, two Hong Kong films, Goldfinger, Sneak, and the workplace satirical comedy The Annual Meeting can’t stop! ",New Year’s classic IP" If You Are the One 3 "are all worth looking forward to. The staff of Daguangming Cinema also revealed that, according to the usual practice, "hot movies are basically released in the last two days of the year, and it is difficult to predict whether the annual box office can reach 55 billion yuan, but the overall momentum of the film market is good".
Rui Cui, Liu Xiang and bid for the Olympic Games, directors of "Lost She" and "Put All Your Eggs", which achieved good box office results this summer, are all young directors who have not been well known by the public, and many films released recently have a good reputation. "The number of bad films has decreased this year, which is a good phenomenon." Wang Ce said that with the recent survival of the fittest in the industry, what remains is a relatively mature professional force. In his view, the current audience has "changed a batch" compared with a few years ago, the attraction of big-name directors and famous actors has declined, and the audience pays more attention to themes and stories. For creators, it is necessary to think about why the audience comes to see and create more viewing motives for the audience; On the other hand, the audience is also diverted, and the market is more subdivided. Different types of films such as suspense, science fiction and pure love have their own audience groups. Focusing on a niche type can also have a good market return. "The establishment of the film industrialization system is not only aimed at technology, special effects and service, but also includes R&D planning, script creation, process management, etc. In the past, screenwriters could create with their heads closed, and now they may have to consider the market more. When the entire large industrial system is perfect, no link can be built behind closed doors. "
People in the industry generally have confidence in the China film market next year. "Next year, a large number of domestic films with rich and diverse types will be reserved." Wang Ce revealed that at present, the film industry has maintained a good development momentum, and the audience need not worry about the "film shortage" next year. Next, films such as Mr. Red Carpet will be shown in the Spring Festival, and a large number of films such as "Feng Shen II" are expected to meet the audience next year.
Ritual sense attracts young people?
Movies have social attributes. Watching movies on special holidays is a cost-effective entertainment consumption for young audiences.
Recently, the movie "Twinkle, Twinkle, Twinkle, Bright Stars" has attracted the attention of people in the industry and the public: the director is a newcomer, the actor is not a flow star, and the theme is the fantasy love of the minority. However, the pre-sale box office exceeded 100 million yuan 23 days before the release, making it the earliest pre-sale movie and the fastest pre-sale movie for the New Year.
"In my impression, the Lunar New Year files and movies are all family fun types." Hu Youqi found that there are many suspense and crime themes in recent Lunar New Year movies, as well as Goodbye, Li Ke Le and Dog God with pet themes. In the past, the typical Lunar New Year movies only had the traditional blockbuster Neptune 2: The Lost Kingdom and the established IP If You Are the One 3. According to the data from Taobao Film, there are more than 100,000 movies "wanted to see", among which "plot crime" accounts for 3 movies.
"Suspense movies are a niche theme for the industry and the audience. These films have a small investment and a low box office ceiling, and usually choose a small schedule or a cold schedule." Wang Ce believes that although there are suspense films such as "Disappeared She" and "Put All Your Eggs on One Egg" exploding in the market this year, they rely more on the topic heat and are unrepeatable. "In the future, suspense films may not become a popular theme, but at present, as a mature market type and insurance investment theme, it may form a fixed output ratio in the domestic film market."
In the eyes of the industry, with the renewal of movie audiences, young moviegoers are more willing to choose niche and personalized themes. The change of the New Year’s Eve schedule also makes more movies with rich themes and relatively small investment willing to choose this schedule. "Judging from the distribution of the schedule and its impact on the whole year’s market, the Lunar New Year file is expected to continue the heat at the end of the year until the beginning of next year before the Spring Festival file next year, which will play an important role in preheating and undertaking the Spring Festival file next year." Zhang Tong said.
In addition to the quality of the film, the film side has also begun to exert its strength in marketing and distribution, enriching the movie-watching experience of fans. "Twinkle, twinkle, twinkle, bright stars" released on December 30, 1314 cinemas across the country will hold "snow field" activities at 13: 14 on the same day, which is considered by the industry as an important reason for the film’s pre-sale box office to outshine others. According to the data of Cat’s Eye Professional Edition, among the users who buy pre-sale tickets for "Twinkle, Twinkle and Bright Stars", the population under 25 is over 80%. On social media, many viewers who bought advance tickets showed their ticket purchase records, expecting the movie to "snow" when it was released.
"As a kind of entertainment consumption content, movies not only have commodity attributes, but also have social attributes. Young audiences are the main consumers of social activities. They are more active and pay more attention to the sense of ceremony. On some special holidays, watching movies is a cost-effective entertainment consumption for young audiences. " Zhang Tong said.
In order to create such a sense of ceremony, many cinemas have made innovations. Located on the first floor of Jing ‘an MOHO, Baiying Sanke Yinghua is a compound space combining a cinema and a restaurant. Ma Ye introduced that this year’s summer file was very busy during the National Day holiday, and the film market was relatively weak in November. Everyone took the opportunity to thoroughly clean the interior and carpets of the cinema, and carried out equipment maintenance, maintenance and staff training, so as to welcome the movie-watching craze with a better look after the opening of the Lunar New Year file.
Bai Ying San Ke Ying Hua also designed a series of activities to create a sense of ceremony. For example, on December 16, Shanghai ushered in a cooling down, and the cinema chose to hold the "Winter Night Jazz Trio" on the same day to attract the audience with movie music; From December 20th to 25th, the stamp-stamping activity sought after by young people was introduced. With the ticket stubs exchanged for stamp-collecting cards on that day, the stamps of Wonka, Aquaman 2 and Detective Conan were hidden in the cinema space for the audience to find and stamp, and there would be staff dressed as NPC (non-player role) to interact with the audience. "We left these activities to create a sense of theater ceremony to young employees to plan independently, to attract the audience to stay in the theater for a while and leave an impression outside the film. When the audience has memories and emotional connections with the cinema, it is difficult for them to leave. "